Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
