Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Selection Process

A number of figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.