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Amid the considerable disarray regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but the recent overnight operation witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another state and seize its president – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. This ought to concern everyone.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other elements of the headless administration are even more hardline.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a rogue state.

He holds the view that the America's power permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He promises that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, considering the potential next target.