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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the biggest upset.

Yet this year's race is distinctly unique. The pool of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners falling away and recent also-rans rising collectively. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a chaotic and fun year, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current is not a normal season!

The area where his case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still