It was 60 days in the past that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while his coach scolded him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, the question was if Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause of the side's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. When Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, now sit only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
It remains a particularly tough query to address. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, while the wins have piled up.
Per Opta, twice all season have Villa posted an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a club that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, they look weirdly vulnerable – however currently the margins are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with rivals before hoping their talisman to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more against Manchester United.
His opener came from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa have to face in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be another reality in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the force he was in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital player for the national team.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. When the hero positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
